Recess Pieces: Can We Predict a Recession?
Recess Pieces explores how shifts in everyday consumer behaviors may signal upcoming economic recessions. Economists traditionally rely on indicators such as unemployment rates and consumer credit to track downturns, but there have been theories such as the “Lipstick Index” that suggest that the sales of certain everyday commodities (such as makeup products) may see changes leading up to or during a recession.
By comparing these unconventional indicators to established metrics, this project aims to provide some clarity on whether these theories are viable across recessions that have taken place in the 21st century, and if so, how consumer trends have shifted during each recession.
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